Seasons Watched: 2016–17 to 2020–21 (age 17–21 seasons according to FBref)
I’ve been writing about football on the internet for nearly a decade, and seriously got into it around the 2014–15 season. A lot of those articles have been focused on individual players, figuring out what they can and can’t do on the pitch and how impactful their skills are when it comes to helping their teams succeed. Writing for that long means a couple of things. The first is you grow to detest a lot of the old pieces you produced due to later advancements in your match viewing and writing capabilities. Second is you’ll inevitably be wrong on the players you previously tried to evaluate, and believe me I’ve had a lot of misses.
Deep in the archives of Statsbomb’s website exists an article from yours truly which featured a somewhat skeptical tone towards the player who’ll be the final profile for this series, Kylian Mbappé. A big qualm I had with the hype machine stemmed from him beating up on lower-middle tier Ligue 1 clubs for a Monaco side that ran exceedingly hot with their finishing to win the league in 2017. There’s the obvious inability I had in analyzing players back then which partly explains why I missed. Some of it as well was not giving Mbappé nearly enough credit for being able to produce excellent numbers in the first place versus okay domestic sides at 17 years old.
It’s safe to say my piece has aged like milk. Mbappé seemingly went from strength to strength during his first five seasons. He’s slowly molded himself into more of a well-rounded attacker while still maintaining the amazing athletic features he displayed when bursting onto the scene. Along the way he’s won a bunch of trophies in the men’s game, with ludicrous individual production to boot. Perhaps the greatest compliment that can be given is he reached the vaunted level where both the “got that dawg in him” and “that boy nice” memes applied to him.
Scouting Report
This series has been home to several attackers who’ve provided good-great value without the ball from a young age. It’s a credit to Mbappé that so early in his career, he can be argued to already having generational off-ball impact. Certainly a good portion of it is due to his incredible speed and ability to hit top speed in such a short time. He doesn’t necessarily have to be in a great starting position before attempting a run yet could still get to where he wants and punish the opposition. This was especially true if given space in transition.
Those runs came from a variety of angles. It was common to see him making straight line dashes through the halfspace into the wide area of the box once possession circulated to a teammate on the nearby flank. He could also attempt curling runs towards the center or out-to-in movements against the fullback. When dealing with set defenses, Mbappé showed good awareness to be on the blindside of defenders before quickly getting on the end of passes in the box. Where he differed from another prolific off-ball mover like Edinson Cavani stemmed from how the Uruguayan was slithery in getting to those high value spots. This isn’t to say Mbappé didn’t have his own moves, but rather he had the luxury of using explosiveness to get from point A to point B. Add it all up and you get a player who struck fear before his first touch of the ball.
Similar to what was seen with Michael Owen, Mbappé’s off-ball movement helped amplify his playmaking. In deeper areas, he wasn’t entirely comfortable playing with his back to goal so he’d look to quickly attempt flicks and one-touch passes for combination sequences before darting forward. Higher up, he‘d constantly look to crash the wide areas of the box and from there, attempting those valuable cross-box passes with either foot, while under duress in some instances. This is something that’s been a part of his game ever since emerging onto the scene with Monaco, and has become more automatic for him with more experience.
The added reps allowed him to grow as something of a secondary creator in the final third, generating good looks for teammates from central spaces via throughballs and reverse passes. In particular, it seemed that a quicker tempo favored his style of passing. The relative inconsistencies with his touch, along with not recognizing passing windows that the elite playmakers would, likely meant he had a ceiling as a creator that was a notch or two below that vaunted level.
Arguably the headline attraction with Mbappé to this day is just how frighteningly quick he is with the ball as well. It has made him the subject of constant comparisons to Thierry Henry or Ronaldo Nazário. He’s got one of the most explosive first steps the game has ever seen. From a complete standstill, he could just push the ball into space and leave his marker in the dust. He‘d also blend stepovers before utilizing a change of pace dribble when closer to the touchline. It’s why you’ll often see him attract 2–3 opponents when on the ball because him at full speed was a nightmare proposition due to also possessing top level balance.
Bad things happened when he received within central spaces and has space to drive with the ball. During more settled possession, he created those valuable artificial transitions and disorganized the opposition’s defensive structure. Around the box, his quick feet made it easier for him to set up shooting opportunities. You’d see him occasionally utilize the fake shot move to create better looks for himself (like what was seen in abundance with Ousmane Dembélé). His ability to manufacture tons of carries into valuable areas to both create and shoot made him a terrifying threat off the dribble.
The combination of on/off-ball gravity Mbappé possessed from the get-go made him the rare high volume shooter who could generate something from thin air, yet still get on the end of a ton of quality shots. One of the fascinating things after the 2016–17 season concluded was how sustainable it’d be to expect him going forward to constantly finish above his expected goal tally. With a greater sample size, it turned out he‘s been the kind of finisher who’ll regularly outpace expected goal models to at least a decent degree. It might not be at quite the level of Messi during his heyday or what Son Heung-Min has done with Tottenham, but Mbappé’s certainly one of the game’s best finishers because of the variety of shots in his locker.
Analysis
To put it simply, Mbappé has been a freak of nature since he started getting regular minutes at Monaco. It’d be mightily impressive if he simply made his name with his off-ball work. He could freak opponents out with his speed and anticipation in a variety of situations which meant he wasn’t simply just a transition merchant. What made it truly unfair was him being able to also create tons of havoc in possession himself. That rare combination of elite on and off-ball gifts was mentioned in Om Arvind’s own extensive analysis from August 2021. The end result was him producing a ton of good shots, while also being a net-positive finisher. One can argue Mbappé’s playmaking repertoire got to a very good level towards the end of his first five seasons, although still not quite on par with the best creators.
Development for young footballers doesn’t always follow a straight line in the positive direction. It’s not uncommon to see lull periods during their early years as they’re still figuring things out. What’s been impressive with Mbappé is he started off at a very high level and still managed to ascend higher. Among qualified players in the big 5 leagues according to FBref from 2017–21 for non-penalty goals and assists per 90 minutes, he ranked: 2nd, 21st, 1st, 1st, and 5th. Expected goal and assist numbers from 2018–21 saw a similar pattern of 7th, 1st, 1st, and 6th. His attempt at becoming an all-around player can be seen with his usage rate climbing in each season, although it still wasn’t overly dominant. He became Ligue 1’s preeminent ball carrying threat by 2020 and 2021, while reaching a high level with his final third passing in 2020.
All-in-one metrics are largely in agreement that Mbappé has been one of the game’s best players for some time. The DAVIES model has his 2019–20 as the best season in its record on a per 90 basis for players with 850 or minutes played, with 2018/2019/2021 also in the top 50. Hugh Klein’s adjusted plus-minus model is not quite as high on his offensive impact from 2017–19. It does have 2020 and 2021 ranked 15th and 41st respectively from 2017–21 with the same minutes threshold. Edvin’s Estimated Impact model tries to combine event data with +/- output, which has become the norm in other sports like the NBA. It‘s got the same lifespan as DAVIES, and has Mbappé’s 2019 and 2020 seasons ranked 6th and 4th from 2018–22.
It’s not a coincidence that Mbappé’s all-time level season in 2020 came with Thomas Tuchel under the helm. He’s come the closest of any manager since Qatar Sports Investments’ takeover of Paris Saint-Germain to crafting a coherent in-game structure and also placating the club’s stars. Mbappé’s ludicrous production has been more of an afterthought since moving to Paris given their talent advantage, although he’s performed similarly in the Champions League. That includes playing a prominent role in Monaco’s exciting run to the semifinals in 2017. PSG’s CL results from 2018–21 were okay on the aggregate, highlighted by appearances in the final and semifinals in 2020 and 2021 respectively. They were arguably only true inner circle contenders in 2020, finishing 5th in Elo ratings at the end of the season. Even still, it took two late goals to escape another early exit vs Atalanta in the quarterfinals.
A key thing Mbappé has in his favor compared to others in the series is attacking skillset flexibility. He’s been able to leverage his off-ball gifts in the #9 role to work alongside a ball-dominant teammate in Neymar (and later on Messi as well). He’s also played next to a #9 at both club level (Cavani, Moise Kean, Mauro Icardi) and for the French national team (Olivier Giroud) while still performing at a top level. This speaks to his strong portability, being able to produce with other top talents in different roles. It would’ve been interesting to see how he‘d fare in a different big 5 league during this period, although the CL numbers are an indicator he‘d reach close to the same level of dominance. If this series also accounted for the defensive strengths/weaknesses of attackers, Mbappé would lose a bit of value due to his issues out of possession when defending.
Some of these guys in the series have required a ton of thinking when trying to ballpark their attacking contributions. In comparison, this has been considerably more straightforward. Mbappé ticks off nearly every box you’d want. His production has rivaled the best in the game, and surpassed the rest of the field for stretches (particularly the 2020 season). Sure it’d be nice if his passing was a bit better, but at that point we might already be talking about a true GOAT candidate by his age 21 season. It’s also harder to suss out his impact on team results domestically even with the existence of all-in-one models given PSG’s unique existence within French football. All that said, I think there’s enough evidence to suggest Kylian Mbappé has a viable argument for being the best under-21 attacking talent over the past 25 years.
A big thank you once again to Yash Thakur for his contributions to the piece, please go support his work. I’d also like to thank Maram AlBaharna for her immense help with profiles 7–10. The series finale will be published some time in 2023. If you want to support my work, that would be greatly appreciated but it is understandable if this isn’t an option given the unprecedented times we’re still living in.
Previous Profiles
#1: Patrick Kluivert #2: Thierry Henry #3: Michael Owen #4: Javier Saviola #5: Fernando Torres #6: Wayne Rooney #7: Lionel Messi #8: Sergio Agüero #9: Karim Benzema #10: Alexandre Pato #11: Raheem Sterling #12:Anthony Martial #13: Dele Alli #14: Ousmane Dembélé
