Seasons watched: 2014–15 to 2017–18 (Ages 18–21 according to FBref)
It feels like a distant memory, but Anthony Martial’s debut with Manchester United was the kind of storybook beginning you’d want from a youngster who was British football’s most expensive teenager at the time. It happened against a bitter rival (Liverpool), and while a bit of fortune came his way, the finish evoked memories of another Frenchman who took English football by storm himself in a previous era (Thierry Henry). For a club that had and continues to spin its wheels following the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson in 2013, hope hasn’t been something United have had in abundance yet this debut felt like the first signs of a new dawn.
Calling the transfer a complete bust is a bit harsh. There were stretches from 2018–21 where Martial was one of the better players in the league, but 2019–20 is the only season from that period where he played a lot (over 2500 mins) at a high level. A better term is disappointment, which could frankly describe Manchester United’s existence post-Ferguson. Despite remaining one of the richest clubs in the world, their massive spending hasn’t translated to on-pitch success. There’ve been numerous signings of both managers and players who never made sense, clearly indicating a lack of organizational structure and philosophy.
The internal chaos has made it hard for young talents at the club to develop into the best version of themselves. Martial’s arguably the greatest casualty, arriving from Monaco as a high level prospect with the opportunity to be molded into something greater. There were different pathways he could’ve taken to become a genuine star if he received proper coaching and care in his formative years. Instead, the absence of those things led to a player whose strengths had him on the cusp of stardom, but whose weaknesses never allowed him to make a final leap.
Scouting Report
There have been several forwards in the past who were bestowed the tag as the next Thierry Henry (another one will feature later onin the series). It’s not hard to see how Martial ended up being one of those lucky recipients. While not having the extra gear in acceleration that Henry had, he was quite quick in his own right with a not dissimilar running style when sizing up the opponent. He could maneuver out of tight areas from the flank or halfspaces, looking to create quick combination sequences in the final third. In transition sequences, his balance made him a threat to carry long distances and draw fouls in dangerous areas. As the years went by, he became increasingly pigeon holed on the left side and would often look to cut inside as the first option.
The gravity Martial had off the dribble made life easier for him as a final third threat. Constantly attracting two on the ball left openings for nearby teammates around the box by delaying the play. He could also carry into the box from wide to set up cut-backs or attempt to target the six yard area. Crossing wasn’t a major part of the repertoire, although he had a bit of touch on shorter attempts around the wide zone. Given his tendency to move centrally, there were opportunities to slip teammates through despite the attacking issues United had during these seasons. He improved his timing on reverse passes into the box with more experience, and the decision making became a bigger positive. His balance and decent strength also allowed him to contribute occasionally with his back to goal and bringing teammates into the play.
Probably the area of Martial’s game with the most question marks was his work off the ball. Compared to other players in the series, he had a motor that ran hot and cold. This is something that has continued to plague him in the following years which constituted his early peak. Rather than constantly hunt for space in behind, he had a tendency to gesture for the ball to his feet in front of the defense. While he did have moments of dragging CBs out of position when helping with combination play, this wasn’t in coordination with another teammate occupying the vacated space (admittedly this could also be a coaching problem).
This isn’t to say that he never attempted to stretch the defense, because mixed in were moments involving him attempting to do such a thing, particularly in non-structured scenarios. In the penalty area, he wasn’t someone like Edinson Cavani who make counter moves to find openings. Rather, he tended to linger around and was better playing off of someone who could occupy defenders to create the space. His ability to finish first time in different ways made it easier for him to lurk around or even trail as the last man into the box.
Martial’s shot volume has wavered some throughout his career, and did so during this period, ranging from middling (2016, 2017) to strong (2015, 2018). As such, the non-penalty goal tallies were bolstered more from being an above finisher vs a shot monster. Even under duress, he had the balance to shape himself to the goal so the side footed finish was available to him. His footwork in the box in general granted him access to get off shots in traffic. Although a willing two footed shooter, I wouldn’t say it was necessarily a strength of his as he scored 7 goals from an expected count of 8 with the left foot.
Analysis
It’s easy to see why so many were high on Anthony Martial. He possessed high-end athleticism on-ball which made him a viable solo progressor into dangerous areas. Although a level or two down from being a star creator, he made himself into being very viable in a secondary role. There was evidence to suggest that he could outpace expected goal numbers more seasons than not due to his shooting techniques in different scenarios. The biggest drawback was off the ball, and his overall lack of intensity. While there were positive moments, there were also plenty of instances of him being idle and stagnating potentially dangerous sequences because of his desire to receive in front of the opposition backline. Part of being a star forward involves attempting runs even if a pass may not come your way. It just didn’t seem that he was coached to gamble enough.
The statistical resume for Martial in his early years was quite solid. Among qualified 21 or under players in the big five leagues, he ranked around the top 15 from 2015–17, and top 5 in 2018. The underlying expected production weren’t demonstrably far behind, and his chance creation experienced a brief bump, partially due to how strong he performed coming off the bench in what had been less than 1600 league minutes. Going further under the hood, the threat Martial carried off the dribble was significant, all the while having to handle ample responsibility in ball progression from the middle third into the final third. Like with Raheem Sterling, he likely functioned best playing on a team with more prolific creation threats. Public attempts at evaluating how much players provide value through their on-ball actions paint Martial in a very favorable light compared to other U21 attackers not named Kylian Mbappe.
Piling up those numbers is even more impressive considering 2015 Monaco and 2016–18 Manchester United were no one’s definition of high octane attacking teams. Monaco only averaged 1.21 non-penalty goals per game, with their expected goals for at 1.35 in 2015. United were at 1.44 NPG per game and 1.35 NPXG per game from 2016–18. Under Louis van Gaal, progressing play into the final third wasn’t the issue, but rather what happened once they entered the zone. The shot numbers improved in the two seasons under Jose Mourinho, although that was primarily due to continued massive spending on attacking talent, and even then the overall squad building was haphazard.
As mentioned earlier, the comparisons to Thierry Henry were thrown at Martial’s feet due to skillset and the arc of their careers early on. Henry became a bonafide star at Arsenal by finding a coach in Arsène Wenger who shifted him towards the central areas, finding an equilibrium between the desire of being an on-ball creation threat vs making movements in behind. Martial couldn’t achieve a similar balancing act himself. Perhaps an argument could be made that the most optimal archetype would’ve been as a ball dominant inside forward. When preparing for this piece, I talked to Aaron Moniz (one of the smartest Man Utd fans online) and he brought this up while using Eden Hazard as an example for who Martial could’ve modeled his game after. Instead of being a ~25 goal guy per season, he could’ve produced in the region of 15 goals and 10 assists. It makes some sense, particularly with how much shots the Frenchman could create for himself and others off of a carry.
It is really hard to be a central hub along the likes of a Hazard or even Jack Grealish due to the threshold needed as a dribbler and final third passer. Perhaps Martial would’ve rivaled those two if he was drilled to be that kind of player from the onset. Even so, unless you’re near the level of 2018–21 Lionel Messi, there’s arguably a hard ceiling on how valuable you can be. For all his brilliance, Hazard’s floor raising never led to Chelsea producing amazing attacks from 2015–19. It’s also an archetype that isn’t necessarily the easiest to scale up onto teams with high-end attacking talents. All of this is to say that I still think Martial should’ve been trained more as a CF/ST, although perhaps I’m underrating the difficulty in nudging a forward into becoming a more aggressive off-ball threat. Ending up halfway between each path made him almost a cautionary tale.
My main takeaway from all of this was what could’ve been. It’s a feeling that I’ve experienced before during the series, but that more so had to do with injuries with the likes of Michael Owen and Alexandre Pato. Javier Saviola is the closest comparison, with both moving to super clubs at a time of disfunction and still performing admirably, but I’d argue Martial was more gifted overall despite both having considerable off-ball issues. There’s an alternative timeline where he moves elsewhere after Monaco and gets much closer to his absolute ceiling with a better organizational setup. I’d classify Anthony Martial as a very good prospect, and one who should’ve been better.
A big thank you once again to Yash Thakur for his contributions to the piece, please go support his work. If you want to support my series, that would be greatly appreciated but it is understandable if this isn’t an option given the unprecedented times we’re still living in.
Previous Profiles
#1: Patrick Kluivert #2: Thierry Henry #3: Michael Owen #4: Javier Saviola #5: Fernando Torres #6: Wayne Rooney #7: Lionel Messi #8: Sergio Agüero #9: Karim Benzema #10: Alexandre Pato #11: Raheem Sterling
