Seasons watched: 2008–09 to 2010–11 (Age 18–20 seasons according to FBref)
Given how far he has fallen over the past decade, it can sometimes be forgotten how massive a star Alexandre Pato was during his formative years. The hype could be traced back to his performances in the 2006 Club World Cup as a 17 year old for Internacional, which included breaking Pelé’s record at the time for the youngest scorer in a FIFA competition. By the time he was 18, magazines were labeling him as one of the game’s brightest prospects. With the likes of Ronaldinho and Adriano already exiting their primes, and Ronaldo at the tail-end of his career, Pato looked like the obvious candidate to be the next face of Brazilian football for the next handful of years.
In that sense, one can easily see why A.C. Milan paid a premium to beat out the rest of the competition in acquiring Pato’s signature. They were nearing the tail-end of their life cycle near the top of European football, needing a jolt of energy that a top level prospect could provide to prolong their stay at the top, especially following Kaká’s departure in the summer of 2009. Like with the national team, the hope was for him to take the torch and lead the Italian club into the 2010’s as a key figure to build around. The early returns were promising and for a brief period, it looked as if Milan’s bet would pay off handsomely. As it turned out, a combination of repeated muscle injuries and outside factors led to his own fall from grace.
I came into this being a bit skeptical of Pato’s ability to contribute positively towards a team’s attack. Part of it stemmed from my general hesitancy towards flashy forwards, especially those who have a more limited sample size in their resume. As well, players who have their trajectory significantly altered early on tend to have their healthy period become overrated. This happens particularly for historical prospects where access to full matches is harder to come by. While I think his flaws have been brushed aside to some extent because of the heightened focus on injuries, it isn’t hard to see why people had extremely high hopes for him when he emerged on the scene.
Scouting Report
A lot of the legend surrounding Pato heavily revolved around his pace and constantly pressuring opposition off the dribble. In that sense, fully examining this period didn’t do anything to dissuade that notion. He was electric in creating separation off the dribble because of his first step, acting as a credible threat to cut inside or attacking towards the byline from either flank. What made him particularly exciting stemmed from his ability to execute multiple successful dribbles during an individual carry sequence. While it could sometimes not look the smoothest due to having a heavy touch on occasion, his reflexes during these instances were quite impressive. He consistently turned away against opponents trying to press up on him, which made him a valuable outlet in transition. When receiving in the halfspace or central areas, he was a threat to receive on the turn and immediately look to run at the opposition backline.
While it’s easy to see how dribbling was a strength in Pato’s skillset, his playmaking and overall passing were around neutral and perhaps even less. Tunnel vision was a notable issue, not being able to consistently analyze the pitch for possible options ahead of him. This would lead to instances of losing possession in traffic or ending up individually creating a low quality shot for himself. What made these moments especially frustrating was that I don’t think he necessarily had bad touch as a passer, but rather he just lacked awareness. When operating in transition or even semi-transition against a defense that wasn’t settled, he had better consistency in terms of awareness and overall coordination, including on crosses and cut-backs since it took less problem solving from him. While it’s easier for attackers to create for others during chaotic situations, the difference was even more stark with Pato.
There were things to really like with Pato’s work off the ball. When situated out wide, he was dangerous making diagonal runs into the box and in general, he was a threat in making runs from the far side to stretch the opposition’s defense while possession occurred elsewhere. That made him an ideal target for teammates who consistently attempted long range passes. In contrast, I found him to be less consistent in making short direct runs in behind, even though his quickness off the mark still made him such a handful for defenders to deal with in the moments he did sense those opportunities.
Alongside strikers who can play with their back to goal, Pato had some success attempting 1–2’s and hovering around them to turn a teammate’s hold up play into potential shots. In the box, his pace allowed him to dart towards the middle of the box for potential close range opportunities, and he did show some craft in slithering himself into openings. Strength wasn’t something he had in abundance, so certain defenders could nudge him off the ball in the box to nullify scoring chances. This also showed up in his inconsistency with linking play for others after dropping into deeper areas, as he was much more comfortable quickly creating space for himself and drawing fouls.
Pato utilized some of the shooting techniques that were noted with players recently analyzed in this series, including the ability to shoot in tight areas and pick the bottom corner by putting his laces through it. That could also be seen when he would execute a progressive carry to create his own shot, albeit there would be the occasional blocked attempt in traffic. The strength issues did mean his shot count likely got suppressed a bit, and perhaps that played a part in his shot profile becoming less optimal from 2010 to 2011. The small-ish sample size and the pitfalls of using a relatively naïve expected goal model are two possible factors for his finishing looking like a complete outlier.
Analysis
Athleticism was what made Alexandre Pato an eye-catching prospect, particularly the sheer speed he could ramp up to in relatively minimal time. He was a premium athlete who constantly created space either within crowded areas in the interior, or operating near the touchline. This played to his advantage particularly during fast break opportunities where he could function as a one-man counter attack. His off-ball movement was also formidable, particularly in keeping the defense honest with vertical or diagonal runs on the opposite side. In unstructured scenarios was when his passing came to life the most, which somewhat mitigated general issues concerning vision and overall touch in attempts to create for others during possession play. Despite the considerable noise surrounding his shooting, there’s a chance that he might’ve been an above average shooter at a young age.
When healthy, Pato’s individual production has always fared competitively compared to the rest within the big five leagues. If we were to include the 2007–08 season in which he played just under 1300 league minutes (he wasn’t allowed to be involved in official matches until January 2008), he was in the top 50 in non-penalty goals and assists per 90 minutes in every league campaign through 2010–11. In pure production terms, 2011 was his best year as he ranked 4th in NPGA per 90. That said, I’m quite skeptical of Pato’s numbers from 2011 given the low minute total he accumulated. During his entire tenure with Milan, he only logged 2000 or more minutes in Serie A once in 2008–09, a likely byproduct of the high intensity running being too much for his body to handle. There’s also the extreme overperformance in shooting which juiced up his goal tally, although perhaps more robust xG models would rank his shot profile more favorably.
As mentioned earlier, Milan were transitioning to a new reality as the 2010’s began. The squad was full of esteemed players at the wrong end of the age curve, which meant a gradual decline from the glory years of 2004–07. Instead of contending with the best clubs as they did during that stretch, they settled into their new reality of being within the top 15–20 as a good but not great club. This could also be reflected to some extent with Milan’s standing in terms of revenue generated. The Deloitte Football Money League had Milan ranked 3rd in 2005, and while they were still in the top 10 by 2011, they were closer to 15th than the top 3.
Even still, they were formidable by the early 2010’s and when it comes to Pato’s skillset, it’s hard to come up with a more harmonious set of players to work off of than what Milan had to offer. While Clarence Seedorf and Andrea Pirlo weren’t at the peak of their powers as overall players, they were still clear net-positives as passers relative to their position. Ronaldinho (in 2009 and 2010) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic were the kind of attackers who could soak up a lot of possessions in the final third, with the latter no longer occupying the same spaces as Lionel Messi during his lone season at Barcelona. Having a bunch of good-great passers covered for Pato’s flaws, and it’s also not a coincidence that Ibrahimovic went on to have one of the best assist rates of his career that season.
From a historical standpoint, Michael Owen is an interesting comparison since they both peaked exceptionally young (Owen still managed to log many more minutes post-peak). They were both nuclear athletes both on and off the ball while being so-so passers, albeit Owen‘s proclivity for gambling on short bursts in behind allowed him to have considerably greater off-ball impact than Pato. When looking at modern examples, the diagonal cuts into the box and ability to credibly operate as an inside forward are reminiscent of someone like Sadio Mané. Another current comparison could be Timo Werner, particularly given how they were both at their best playing just off of a physical striker.
Overall, there are compelling arguments on both sides when discussing Pato’s value. Being able to pressure the opposition with diagonal and vertical movements made him have solid gravity off-ball. He was a clear value-added dribbler in multiple areas, and his overall archetype wasn’t totally out of the norm. On the other hand, his passing was around average since he didn’t have a ton of playmaking diversity and had issues with recognizing passing windows. As well, he didn’t have the body type to consistently absorb pressure from defenders. Throughout the three season period, the supporting cast around him made sense and put him in a position to succeed on what were solid Milan sides. While the goals and assist numbers were great, there’s enough to question that makes it hard to take them at face value. All things considered, I think Alexandre Pato was a borderline very good attacking prospect from 2009–11.
A big thank you once again to Maram AlBaharna for her contributions to this piece. Please support her work so she can continue to make quality content that’s publicly available to all. If you want to support my series, that would be greatly appreciated but it is understandable if this isn’t an option given the unprecedented times we’re living in.
Previous Profiles
#1: Patrick Kluivert #2: Thierry Henry #3: Michael Owen #4: Javier Saviola #5: Fernando Torres #6: Wayne Rooney #7: Lionel Messi #8: Sergio Agüero #9: Karim Benzema
