Seasons watched: 2013–14 to 2016–17 (Age 18–21 seasons according to FBref)
Of all the players analyzed in this series so far, one could make an argument that none dealt with as much constant change in their formative years as Raheem Sterling did. The 2013–14 season was his true arrival on a high octane Liverpool side, being the third wheel alongside Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge. Suarez’s move to Barcelona and Sturridge’s health issues quickly thrusted Sterling up the pecking order, having to perform in numerous roles including having a cup of coffee as a wingback. The following two seasons with Manchester City (which involved a contentious transfer request) were perhaps not as hectic but certainly difficult in their own right, including the growing pains of learning under Pep Guardiola during his first season managing in England.
Yet through all of the chaos, Sterling remained one of the most talked about youngsters across Europe in the mid 2010s. Part of it stemmed from being one of the few English talents at the time with genuine star potential, in addition to playing for two huge clubs in the Premier League. It’s not hard to see how those two things would lead to him gathering steam in terms of popularity and excitement. That being said, a fair amount of the hype was justified. Attackers during their age 18 season producing 0.57 non-penalty goals and assists in over 2000 league minutes for a title contender (albeit a flawed one like Liverpool were in 2014) don’t exactly grow on trees.
People fondly remember the flair and athleticism Sterling showed in the early parts of his career. You’ll even some people joke about how he’s another example of Guardiola siphoning the creativity of an ascending attacking talent by molding them into an extremely efficient player. The validity of those jokes aside, it was clear even at a young age Sterling possessed a level of sophistication that you didn’t see often from players establishing themselves in a top flight league.
Scouting Report
Part of what made Sterling tantalizing came from having diversity as a playmaker, a new age winger that England hadn’t produced much of at that point. He could leverage his gravity as a dribbler to either attack the byline or cut inside and slip teammates into the wide zone of the box for either a shot or setting up an eventual cut-back opportunity. As a crosser, he was most comfortable with lofting his attempts rather than zipping them in. Being able to do it with either foot kept defenders honest when isolated on the flanks. With City, he showed proficiency in short ground passes from the flanks to the wide zone of the box that lead to potential cut-back opportunities for teammates. While a decent passer in the interior, there were moments in the final third where he would miss teammates making runs into advantageous areas. The degree to which Liverpool generated fast break and even semi-fast break transitions also helped amplify his passing, especially in 2013–14.
Like what you’d come to expect from a modern winger, Sterling possessed high end explosiveness in short distances. This helped him even split some double teams when facing a 1v2 on either flank. His lower center of gravity made him tough to handle, even using his backside to seal the opponent while letting the ball roll past him to get an advantage. If given the opportunity to turn clockwise, it was tough to dispossess him without committing a foul against him. For lack of a better term, He just had a lot of wiggle to his game. At Liverpool where his position had more variability, he initiated a fair amount of counter attacks since he could make multiple opponents miss within a sequence. While he did dribble himself into congested areas at times, Sterling’s ball carrying was a considerable strength overall.
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of Sterling’s game wasn’t what he did with the ball on his feet, but rather off-ball. Even as a teenager, the ability to sprint into space in behind was present. His acceleration gave him a margin of error so that he didn’t need to always play on the blindside of the defender. He could be a few yards off and still get to the intended spot more times than not, whether it be a diagonal run from out-in or a straight line sprint into the box. Sterling played some minutes up top during the 2014–15 season, and from the film I saw, did an admirable job. Disguising runs through double movements weren’t necessarily a strength of his, but he showed consistency in occupying the opposition backline and attempting to get into goal scoring positions.
Throughout his career, a lot has been made of Sterling’s ability (or perhaps inability) to convert chances. From 2015-Present, his non-penalty goals have lagged slightly behind xG. That same pattern occurred from 2014–17. In general, finishing skill does exists but the vast majority of players tend to hover around their xG. A robust sample size is needed before any confidence can be established one way or another. I don’t think he had the cleanest footwork in the box when preparing to shoot, which could slightly explain the trend. It seemed at times he was too fast for his own good so he couldn’t square himself to the goal consistently, likely impacting the type of shot he’d end up taking.
Analysis
We saw the building blocks for what would come in the following seasons. Sterling had the necessary acceleration in short distances to be a credible threat off the dribble, and flashed some ability as a two footed crosser near the wide areas of the box. He contributed some chance creation when positioned in the interior, but you wouldn’t want him to be the primary initiator. As a ball carrier, he could attract two on the ball when looking to progress within the final third, and was a handful to deal when picking up the ball in deeper areas due to his lower center of gravity and overall shiftiness. Although not the box threat he later became, there was enough to suggest his off-ball movement leaned towards being a net-positive at the time given the reasonable shot volume for a wide player and locations. The finishing struggles were real, but likely not to a cataclysmic degree.
Within this early period, Sterling’s NPGA per 90 rate peaked in 2013–14. Among qualified players who had their age 21 or younger season in the big 5 leagues, he was in the top 20 (he actually finished higher in 2017 at 15th with a slightly lower rate vs 16th in 2014). While not elite, it’s very good production and his underlying numbers largely mirrored the goals and assist numbers from 2015–17. If we look deeper to try and parse his true value, it becomes clear how much pressure Sterling put on opponents with his ball carrying throughout these seasons. Although I think expected threat slightly undersells his passing chops, it’s not far off the mark and hints at a player who you’d ideally want to be surrounded by 1–2 more prolific playmakers.
All things being equal, it’s a credit to how malleable Sterling’s skillset was that he more than held his own in different environments. He went from being Liverpool’s third most important attacker in 2014 who profited from Suarez and Sturridge’s gravity, to having a lot more possessions flow through him in 2015. The end result were adequate, albeit not spectacular. Liverpool ranked in the top 7 in non-penalty expected goals for and 4th in passes completed within 20 yards of goal. This despite the striker position being in constant flux. In a shocking development, neither Mario Balotelli or Rickie Lambert could come close to replicating Suarez’s value. Sturridge’s health being a liability forced Sterling to lead the line during the winter stretch of that season, which coincided with the club’s upturn in form.
Manchester City’s accumulation of talent and the presence of Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva as the club’s primary final third playmakers pushed Sterling to focus more at unlocking deep blocks through ball carrying towards the penalty box. While a credible passer in his own right, he wasn’t constantly tasked with delivering massive value added deliveries like whipped crosses into the danger zone or unlocking defenses with throughballs. I do think his movement behind opposition backlines rebounded in 2017 vs in 2016. Something that Sterling became more confident doing in Guardiola’s first year was timing his sprints towards the far post for potential tap-in opportunities. It was a sneak peak of what would come in the following seasons.
So where does that leave us with Raheem Sterling? I have reservations on him being the focal point of a high-end attack at this stage, but it’s not totally out of the question if you’re a believer in the passing. With how important fullbacks are offensively, it’s worth noting the lack of quality guys he got to play with in these seasons as Glen Johnson might’ve been the best of the bunch. Perhaps if Sterling had stayed at Liverpool, a top 4 level attack could’ve been built around him through acquiring better fullbacks and another quality forward.
Like it has been the case for some of the previous entries in the series, the best argument in Sterling’s favor revolves around the concept of portability. Attackers who can disorganize defenses without the ball and provide at least some value with their passing makes it easier for them to be very helpful contributors in different offensive environments. I think he largely fit the bill already. To feel confident in him being great during these years, I’d have to bump up his passing to being clearly good or truly believe the off-ball stuff was already at the level he reached from 2018-Present. It’s hard to get there with either so I end up having Raheem Sterling as a borderline great attacking prospect.
A big thank you to Yash Thakur for his contributions to this piece, please go support his work. If you want to support my series, that would be greatly appreciated but it is understandable if this isn’t an option given the unprecedented times we’re still living in.
Previous Profiles
#1: Patrick Kluivert #2: Thierry Henry #3: Michael Owen #4: Javier Saviola #5: Fernando Torres #6: Wayne Rooney #7: Lionel Messi #8: Sergio Agüero #9: Karim Benzema #10: Alexandre Pato
