The history of football (and professional sports in general) is filled with a long list of players, who for different reasons, weren’t able to fulfill on the massive potential that they flashed during their younger years. The biggest reason tends to be injuries that were suffered that drastically altered their career trajectory. Ronaldo is perhaps the greatest example of this, with knee injuries costing him his age 22–24 seasons and the version we saw post-2002 wasn’t quite the same as the one who was putting together a GOAT resume (somehow we’re lucky enough to have been granted a second chance with Kylian Mbappe). Michael Owen was a phenomenon in his own right at age 19 before a hamstring injury significantly shortened his time at the top.
And then there are those whose career went sideways for other reasons. It could be that they weren’t able to compliment the talent they possessed with the necessary work ethic and desire to spur them onto greater heights. Maybe a move to a big club didn’t work out in the manner that it was supposed to and did considerable damage, or perhaps the player in question had personal issues which took too much of a toll on them. In the case of Adriano, it was sadly having to deal with the pain of losing his father that saw his career take a turn for the worse. He had the potential to be an all-timer, but ended up as one of football’s greatest “what ifs”.
Truth be told, my fascination and eventual decision to examine Adriano didn’t come from me previously watching him or having memories of playing Pro Evolution 6 as a kid where he was essentially a cheat code (I rarely got the chance to play PES in general). Rather, it’s clips like the one below that sparked my interest. There’s been a certain mystique that Adriano has garnered because of how brief his relevance was. It’s certainly helped him that he’s been referenced by contemporary stars such as Romelu Lukaku as someone they looked up to. I was curious to see if the hype was justified or if the passage of time has made people look back at Adriano more fondly than what the actual reality was with him.
Scouting Report
The first and perhaps biggest thing to note with Adriano is how physical he was, which is not a surprise given his style of play. Even with the passage of time, he ranks as one of the strongest strikers that we’ve seen over the past 25 years. As well, he probably would rank among the most active in initiating contact off the ball when trying to enter the penalty box. This type of hand jostling is common in the NBA when shooters try to create space for themselves via off-ball screens, and the same thing could be applied with strikers trying to establish position in the penalty box. Because of Adriano’s strength alongside his acceleration, it meant that if he could get on the inside of the CB marking him, it was a wrap for the defender. That was often the case as he would use stiff arms, swimming motions, or other little techniques with his off-arm to generate space for himself.
That type of grappling was also present with his ball carrying, where Adriano was also able to merge together his acceleration and strength. In comparison to Kaká, Adriano’s ball carrying was different because he didn’t have the ballet-like half turns in his repertoire to leave his marker in the dust and immediately hit the jets afterwards. Rather, his carries were more like a running-back where he’d plow through to gain yardage. At times, it was almost comical just how much opponents were trying to hold onto him in an effort to slow him down, and how often they’d bounce off of him to the ground wen their initial efforts failed. This level of functional strength was especially useful in Adriano’s earlier years where he was leaner and had greater equity off the dribble during static 1v1s. All of this made him a magnet for drawing fouls, which did provide a bit of value on the margins.
When Adriano operated off the ball, he was active and had good timing on his runs. Particularly at Fiorentina and Parma, he would try to play off the shoulder of center-backs and make darting runs behind the backline. As mentioned earlier, using his off-arm helped him use diverse angled runs to sprint into the six yard box for potential tap-ins. Because of his size and leaping ability, Adriano also had versatility as either someone who could be utilized as a ball-to-feet striker or receiving long balls as an outlet.
A major issue Adriano had, both in his ball carrying and attempting to break down a set defense, was that his passing was limited as he missed a lot of opportunities to slip in teammates behind with passes. He would regularly hold onto the ball for too long and concede possession meekly. On the occasion where he’d attempt to hit an open teammate in dangerous areas, his touch on those passes were erratic. With his passing and overall decision making, it just felt as if he was a beat too late, which might explain why his assist numbers lagged severely behind his goal scoring. He was better as a passer when having to execute layoffs or short lateral passes, but even then there were some struggles with over hitting his teammates. Of all the individuals that I’ve examined, Adriano’s the weakest passer of the bunch and one I’d classify as a net negative (though given that he played as a striker, being a below average passer isn’t as critical compared to players in other positions).
Adriano’s questionable decision making was also present with his shot selection, as he often settled for long-range shots. This was also an issue during ball carries as well, which drove down his value in those situations. If he received the ball on the right, it was a regular occurrence to see him cut towards the middle and shoot from range. Besides the usual caveat that the 2000’s were a time where shot discipline was less of a priority, I do think that part of the reason why he did bet on himself during those situations was the absurd amount of power he could generate on some of those shots with his left foot. This also applied to situations where he would end up taking shots from tight angles.
Analysis
To this point in the series, only Claude Makélélé could rival Adriano in terms of having abundantly clear positives and negatives to his skill-set. Adriano’s strength was at another level compared to his peers, and that allowed him to bully defenders on ball carries and draw fouls in dangerous areas. He was an expert in the art of hand jostling to gain an edge, whether it was swiping down to get inside position in the box, or using stiff arms to keep opponents at bay. While he didn’t possess elite straight line speed, it was still at an above average level which was all that he needed both on and off the ball to create daylight for himself. His size also made him a duel threat to deal with aerial passes to or sealing his opponent to receive passes to his feet. On the other hand, his passing was a weakness in multiple areas, including on layoffs. As well, his decision making on when to shoot needed some fine-tuning as well. That adds up to a fair number of possessions that fizzled out which drove down his efficiency.
There is no doubt that Adriano’s combined production in both Serie A and European competitions from 2002–06 was very impressive. His 05–06 season was his worst in terms of non-penalty goal contribution (goals + assists) per 90 minutes, yet he still managed a decent rate of 0.57, and peaked in 02–03 at a great clip of 0.77. Given that those four years were his age 19–23 seasons, and that was in an era where Serie A was quite strong, he deserve considerable credit. He also gets extra points for how well his game traveled in cup competitions, and it occurred enough times to suggest that this was a real thing in his favor. In a combined 1182 minutes in the 04–05 and 05–06 Champions League, his NPG contribution was at a ridiculous 1.07 per 90 minutes, as Inter made fairly deep runs in both seasons to the quarterfinals. He won the best player award in both Copa America 2004 and the 2005 Confederations Cup, with his performance in Copa America being particularly impressive given that his seven goals dragged what was a fairly limited Brazil side to victory.
Given Adriano’s arc, it’s not surprising that he was rough around the edges during his early 20’s, which was his athletic peak. There’s a sweet spot during a player’s career where their overall talent and knowledge of the game intersect, which brings about the absolute best version of themselves, and Adriano never got to experience that. In general, it’s hard to find many who reached the heights that he did at such a young age before flaming out so quickly, as his relevance as a player was effectively following the 2006 World Cup at age 24. Unfortunately, the death of his father less than two weeks after Brazil’s victory over Argentina in the final of Copa America 2004 sent Adriano into a tailspin that he was never able to get out of. When taking all of that into account, it’s rather remarkable that his best season in terms of raw goal tally happened in 2004–05. Then again, grief isn’t a linear thing that we experience so it’s not wise for any of us to have set in stone expectations for how someone should handle tragedy.
Within just those four seasons, it was clear that we saw two versions of Adriano. The version from 2002 up until the conclusion of Copa America was noticeably leaner, which allowed him to combine sub-elite acceleration alongside his famous strength to create nightmares for the opposition. In the following two seasons, his increased weight eventually hampered his speed. Even with how successful he was in 04–05, Adriano lost half a step which made him unable to attack consistently in the manner that he was previously accustomed to, and his decreased acceleration became even more pronounced afterwards. At that point, he was almost exclusively relying on his strength to gain an edge.
What we’ll never know about Adriano is how his game would’ve evolved during the second half of his twenties if he was granted a normal career. For what we were able to see from him, I think people are looking back at his 2002–06 stretch with rose-colored glasses to a slight extent. While he wasn’t a complete black hole on offense, he wasn’t necessarily efficient on the ball because of his limitations as a passer alongside questionable shot selection. That made him somewhat of a tricky fit to try and scale onto high end domestic sides. Though Inter were granted the 2005–06 Serie A title because of Calciopoli, they finished 3rd in expected points that season at 78.02, a solid mark and an improvement on the prior season’s expected point tally of 71.25 though not quite good enough to truly be a title contender. If anything, Adriano was more of a floor-raiser who particularly thrived in cup competitions because his capacity to be a high usage attacker at ~medium efficiency ensured his teams wouldn’t get overrun by stiffer opponents.
Having said that, it’s fair to argue that in an alternative timeline, Adriano had a shot of being a generational talent. There was low-hanging fruit to be had with tightening up his shot selection, and though it’s hard to say how much better his passing could’ve been, perhaps he could’ve made considerable progress by simply having more reps under his belt. Even with the more likely outcome of only marginal improvements as a passer alongside a cleaner shot profile, that might’ve been enough for him to rank among the best of his era. As it stands, Adriano ranks as one of the most electric talents football has seen in the 21st century, a man who flirted ever so briefly with greatness.
Previous Profiles
#1: Zinedine Zidane
#2: Roy Keane
#3: Claude Makélélé
#4: Steven Gerrard
#5: Kaká
#6: Patrick Vieira
