There’s been this sort of simmering discussion existing within parts of football media concerning the level of talent that Wilfried Zaha is. Almost all of us agree that Zaha is a credible Premier League player, who at his best can electrify a stadium with his combination of skills, but the degree to which some have praised him has gotten to a point where perhaps we’ve gone a bit too far as to how good the public at large has rated him. In particular, the big thing with Zaha is that he’s been proclaimed to be the best player who’s not in one of the big six clubs in England, an opinion that’s been said over and over again. Considering that we’re talking about a guy who’s averaged 0.295 non penalty goals + assists since him move to Crystal Palace in 2014, and 0.40 NPG+A over the past two seasons, numbers that don’t exactly get you out of your seat, you would be forgiven if all of this sounds a little foreign.
Any team contemplating making a big offer will hope that Zaha’s work as a second striker this season is much more of a reflection of his true talent level than what’s been previous from 2014-17. If that’s the case, you can at least say that Zaha has positional versatility to where he’s a slight net positive as a second striker and close to a net neutral wide player. It’s still fair to argue whether that is worth the sums of money that are being reported, and the talk of him being the undisputed best player from a non big-6 club is perhaps a tad presumptuous as well considering the other talents that exist within that part of the division.
One of the big things in regards to Zaha is that he’s one of the higher usage dribblers you’ll find in European Football, and that his dribbling abilities have been used in numerous ways by Crystal Palace because he can create separation from his opposition marker on a consistent basis. Because of this, it’s lead to him having a sky high dispossession rate of 4.1 per 90 minutes, the highest rate of his career. This isn’t a new thing with him, as his averages have been over 3.0 since 2015. One way that Zaha’s helped Palace is that he can be used as an outlet of sorts in turning defense -> attack. For a team like Palace that don’t have much of the ball, having someone that can at least give you a breather from having to perform defensive duties is valuable.
Zaha is a very versatile dribbler because he’s not just someone that can beat you during non-structured scenarios but also against a set defense. His combination of balance and coordination allows him to maneuver in tight spaces while being trapped by opponents, making multiple players look like fools. He’s also able to have guys bounce off him while in possession of the ball. The key thing with Zaha is that these dribbles, at least for this season, have ended up more often leading to passing or shooting opportunities so there’s an extra value being added when he goes on his solo acts.
Zaha’s dribbling and what comes out of it is arguably where the bulk of his value comes from considering he’s not a elite chance creator or passer. If you insert him to a top 6 side that typically dominates the ball, how would this portion of his game translate? You would like to think that an ample amount of it would because he’s got enough versatility in terms of when he beats people off the dribble and isn’t solely just an outlet on the counter attack, but it’s something that should be talked about because he is given a certain level of freedom on the pitch that would be harder to conjure at a bigger club.
As for his overall chance creation, Zaha has been better in this department than in previous seasons both in terms of volume and the quality of those chances. Virtually all of his chances created have come in open play this season, something that’s been the case for Zaha over the years. There’s been a good variety in terms of how he creates those chances, whether it be through crosses near the penalty area or cutback passes from the wide areas of the box.
Something that should also be noted about Wilfried Zaha is that even during his leaner years of production, he’s maintained a very good distribution in terms of the percentage of shots that come inside the box. That is a problem for a lot of wide players, and it’s made more impressive when you consider that the majority of his career has been played on an average to below average PL side. We bemoan attackers for having erratic shot discipline (see: Andros Townsend), so credit should be given to ones that have it.
One of the things I wanted to see was the extent to which Zaha has taken on more of a role in Crystal Palace’s attack compared to previous seasons, because one of the big things with Zaha is the notion that he’s taking more responsibility than ever before and that’s what’s led him to his improved performances. Using Martin Hawkes-Teeter’s version of Usage Rates and successful plays (the lineplot in the picture represents the latter), this is what Zaha has produced over the past three seasons.
Though his usage is very comparable to where it was two years ago, he’s been doing it at appreciably better efficiency with an increase in plays ending successfully from 23% to 33%. That makes sense when you consider that his shot contribution (shots + key passes) per 90 rate of 4.00 and his xG contribution rank as the highest of his Palace career. One other thing I was curious about how Zaha’s usage compared to other wingers who aren’t in the top six. Immediately, this isn’t the most robust selection of candidates, but I picked out five other wide players (at least in theory) who ply their trade among teams who aren’t in the big 6.
Just on the basis of this season alone and what Zaha has produced, I think someone could make an argument that Zaha has been a slightly above average PL attacker who tilts the game in a favorable direction for his opponent, and it wouldn’t be entirely unreasonable. A lot of his underlying numbers are the best we’ve seen from him in a Palace shirt, and it would make sense that he’s peaking now considering that age 25 is around the sweet spot for when wide players peak. He’s an intoxicating soloist and that’s been used more often to create for others than previously, and it’s clear that for whatever reason(s), he’s made a leap of sorts into a different tier of talents within the PL.
Now, I also think that we shouldn’t write off the previous three seasons of his career where he was probably a net-neutral asset on the pitch and didn’t contribute a fair amount on offence. Even last season’s work could be picked apart despite contributing 16 non-penalty goals, where he overperformed xG numbers by nearly double. So which version of Zaha is real: 2014–17 or 2017–18? One of these iterations is a hell of a lot closer to being worth the sums of money that are being reported, and Zaha wouldn’t be the first player to have one outlier season and regress back to his career norms.
With respect to a potential transfer in the summer, and who knows if one actually happens considering the sources that are involved. Assuming that Crystal Palace stay up, which is something that can’t be said with full certainty, I think they should think long and hard about selling him in the event that they are being offered £40M or more for his services. It’s understandable that it’s hard to replace someone that fans consider to be a “star”, especially when there’s an emotional attachment that exists, but I think this scenario shouldn’t be disregarded. For one, while he is 25 and in the prime of his career, wide players do tend to have quicker fall offs than at other positions because of a decline in athleticism as they age. This would be an easier equation if Zaha was 2–3 years younger, where you could reasonably factor in future improvement to drive up his price in the market + ~5 more years of his prime instead of 2–3 years.
In addition to his improved performances, there’s so much narrative being put out there about what Wilfried Zaha has done this season that his value is probably at an all time high. He’s been heralded as the guy who’s helped the club stay above the relegation zone, with people talking about Palace’s record when he isn’t in the lineup, and even in 2018, that type of reputation is something that can be taken advantage in terms of selling high. Just look at what’s happened with Leicester and Riyad Mahrez if you want to see an example of depreciating an asset, where they’ve had multiple attempts of selling high on the Algerian but never pulled the trigger and antagonized him in the process. £40M or more is still a lot of money to work with even in today’s volatile market, playing your cards right could end up with you having an improved squad including a potential younger replacement for Zaha.
There’s a good chance that there’ll be people screaming to the void about the potential pitfalls with this approach, and it’s fair to bring it up. I can appreciate the argument that Crystal Palace’s downside is vast (aka getting relegated) if they screw up the money collected from a theoretical Zaha transfer, so perhaps my previous plea for mid-lower level clubs to take more risks in bridging the wide gap that exists in the league doesn’t quite apply to them. If I was running Crystal Palace and push comes to shove, I would probably pull the trigger on the hypothetical transfer if only because I’m skeptical that his value will get any higher than it currently is, but I can see why others would think differently.
I realize that this piece might come off in a more negative light compared to other articles that’s been written about Wilfried Zaha, and that’s fine. Again, there’s an argument to be made that Zaha has been a net-positive player this season, but this is really the first season where the totality of his statistical resume has come close to achieving “good" status, and I think that should matter on some level when we talk about the value that Zaha brings as a player. Even if you’re totally sure that what we’ve seen from him this season is his true talent level, is he the best player who’s not playing in the elite six in the PL? I think that at the very least, it’s much more of a nuanced argument than what’s being let on by certain parts of the media.
